You’re walking a trail. You arrive at a weathered sign with a trail map. The trail splits here, and both paths stretch about three miles. Left follows a narrow ridge leading to a single scenic overlook. Nice enough, but that’s the only destination. Right leads to a valley with branching trails that lead to several viewpoints, offshoot ponds, and a few paths that connect to other trails. Both paths cover the same initial distance, but one offers far more possibilities.
This is how many our choices work. The difference? In life, maps are rare, and the trail ahead often requires more effort to unpack. A choice isn’t just about where it takes you immediately. It’s about the choices you get to make thereafter.
When you’re stuck, the best choice is usually the one that opens the greatest number of promising branches (not just the one tied to a single, seemingly perfect outcome).
Relative to all possible choices, the best options typically share three key features:
- They offer the potential for significant rewards (high upside).
- They’re not one-way streets (high reversibility).
- They branch into multiple promising directions (downstream flexibility).
This “optionality bias” becomes your compass for everything from what you should have for lunch (probably not gas station sushi), to career moves and whether you should start a family.
You know that getting addicted to a drug has shitty optionality. It locks you into chemical dependence, eats money, hurts relationships, and (despite what you may tell yourself) ruins your capacity to do and get paid for good work. But you’re likely not making a pros and cons list when someone offers you something at a party. Downstream options, a.k.a. second- and third-order consequences, usually aren’t so visible.
When that’s the case — when you can’t see around the bend — take that as a signal. If you can’t unpack the consequences of what could be a major choice, you may be in an area you don’t understand. Avoid making large bets in areas you don’t understand (i.e., being a sucker).
The best options are seldom apparent right away, nor do you have to be the one to come up with them. And there are usually far more than two options available.
By consistently increasing optionality, your journey is likely to be more deliberate and rewarding. Moreover, as optionality accumulates, it can shield you from having to choose among unfavorable paths in the future (downward spirals).
“Options, any options, by allowing you more upside than downside, are vectors of antifragility. If you ‘have optionality,’ you don’t have much need for what is commonly called intelligence, knowledge, insight, skills, and these complicated things that take place in our brain cells. For you don’t need to be right that often. All you need is the wisdom to not do unintelligent things to hurt yourself (some acts of omission) and recognize favorable outcomes when they occur.”
~Nassim Taleb, Antifragile (Book)